Just a few words of caution for those of you invested in the Indian markets. After numerous weeks and months of restlessness and digging into charts, i THINK i saw the light this afternoon. I am not sure if the market will start tanking from this Monday or will push to a max of 18250 this week and then tank. Either way i think we see approx 13200, before we see higher prices, which is my most optimistic scenario.IF I SEE 3 DAILY CLOSES ABOVE 18250 I WILL KNOW I AM WRONG.
My logic is as below.
The point here is not that you can bear the 25% loss to 13200 and that brighter days are ahead. Right now I think that the probability is stacked towards the market tanking. The point is that at 13200 you will have a more difficult choice to make (you have already taken a beating of 25%) and then you have a 50% probability that the market will either bounce or keep heading lower to other support levels (11300, 9600, 8100, 7000). That 50% choice is something you dont want to have to take at the 13200 level because it will be volatile with fake moves in both directions.
Take the decision when the odds favor you.
DO THE SAFE THING SELL NOW.
Disclaimer: Financial markets are highly volatile. Risks are substantial and returns are not guaranteed. This notel may contain views and recommendations that are personal views expressed at a certain point in time and I have no obligation to update such views. Recipients decisions should be guided by their own research, comfort levels, risk profile and total portfolio allocations.
