Tuesday, April 19, 2011

April 19, 2011 USDINR & BSE Sensex


Just an update for the post from last month that can be found here. Excuse the lazy chart extension.
We are still within the wedge and looking for the breakout (rupee to weaken past 46).
The Sensex seems to have made a lower high, and i think will continue to break down. For more analysis on the Sensex you can visit the Sensex post.


Sunday, April 17, 2011

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Count

A few days of price action changes a whole bunch of things, but for now the overall trend remains down. Everything here is in comparison to my previous post dated March 22, 2011 available here.
What i considered was a completed wave III, may actually be wave (1) of a much bigger III.
What i considered was a completed wave IV, may actually be a (ABC) retracement of (1), followed by an (X) and another (ABC) which i think completed on Wednesday 13th with the 400+ pt move to 19737, which is a few points short of 76.4 %retracement of wave (1). This C leg does seem incredibly short but i give more weight to the time chart which seems indicate an inflection point on the 13th, as also indicated in my previous post.
Conclusion for Dummies:
1. For now i think we go down to 18250. If this holds, this could mean that the second (ABC) has not yet completed.
2. Break of 17750 confirms todays count, and would put us in wave (3) of III a.k.a (Mama Bear)
3. If we get above 20750, egg on my face.

and yeah ill be..

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

XLF: Is its cooked yet??



The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE:XLF) sits on a trendline that has been in the making since the March 2009 Lows. A few days and we will soon know if its done.
Yesterdays close was mentionable as the ETF opened above the previous days highs and closed close to the lows creating an outside day. The close was weak compared to the SPY.