Monday, June 17, 2013

Cera Sanitaryware Ltd. (BOM:532443) Elliott Wave

A friend mentioned to me that he had purchased a stock and as usual i threw in my 2 cents worth. Although i hesitate to use Elliott Wave on individual stocks, when patterns are pretty well defined i start sticking labels.  


Comments
Looks like a completed 5 waves. the pattern looks very similar to mid 2010 after which it collapsed. However i am not sure if the (v) wave of iii is complete, so this may keep it up a few more days, but either way i think it goes to 400 at least
If it current leg comes down and crosses the horizontal red line means my count is wrong, at which point i will have to re evaluate.

Sunday, June 9, 2013

SPY two Paths?

Will it be the green or the red path? 

My first choice is the red considering that the emerging markets also look like they want to turn over.

So you think your portfolio is diversified?

If you invested money in the last 4 years, you are probably feeling like a Genius. Since the 2009 lows you made plenty of money, except for those few summer months, your strategy has been great, you bought those SIP's, you diversified your portfolio. Well, you barely had to look at your portfolio. 

The reason your in such is a good mood is that all all asset classes have moved together directionally albeit with different intensity.
Below is a comparison of:
Templeton Global Bond Fund/ SPY (for a clear picture)



Templeton Global Bond Fund/ SPY/ Sensex (with the chop)












Now you see what i mean: Portfolio diversification is your advisers favorite smoke and relative returns his wand and as soon as this market turns your absolute returns will do the disappearing act.

Emerging Markets & BRIC: Make or break time ... yet again

Since my last post on the subject on April 21st, both emerging markets and BRIC have both gone up for half the month and then down for the rest of the month.
EEM: now has a smaller right shoulder formed yet again on the same trendline.


EEB: Back to the trendline, yet again to decide its fate.
 


The only word of caution is that it looks like the S&P 500 might gain some strength and if it makes new highs both the EEM and EEB will make final moves upward and possibly even new highs (EEM 45.39, EEB 37.14) before they collapse below these trend lines.