BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Count

In Elliott terms the BSE Sensex seems to be forming an elliott 5 wave pattern down with distinct fibonacci time relationships. The Wave III has subdivided into 5 waves.

Time Relationships
Wave I= .5 * Wave II (+/-1 day)
Wave IV= .5*Wave III

Price Relationships.
Wave III = 161.8 *Wave I

Forecast
Using Wave I as a benchmark, Wave V would look to end between 17295 and 16620 or at 16000 (which is a nice round number and previous support) around the 7-14th of April which would be a tradeable buying opportunity.
Look for dying momentum to the downside, to pick a intermediate bottom.

Disclaimer: As with all TA, the better it looks the more likely to fail.

USDINR & BSE Sensex

The USDINR seems to be forming a higher low at the 61.8% (43.97) retracement of the move from Jan 2008 (39)to March 2009 (52). The end of this move comes in the shape of a wedge that I think will resolve its self with a move to the upside. A close above 46 is what i would be looking for. The bottom of the chart is the BSE Sensex which has mirrored the USDINR for the for the last 5 years. It should come as no surprise then that the Sensex would continue to drop just as it did during the financial crisis, as the rupee got weaker.