Happy New Year. Hope this year is either profitable or educational. Lol...
A quick review.
1. The december 6th post posted with the sensex at 16988 caught another head and shoulders pattern. The post pointed to a toping range of 17000-17200. The next day the market topped at exactly 17003.71.
2. On the 16th December in comments i posted the pattern was formed and was a 1200+ gain from the post. But i didnt instruct a close of the position, to give leeway to further downside and resolution of the pattern.
3. On 4th December i advised a top with a new short at 15863 with a stop at 16000.
So I assume as of today you are either stopped out from 4th december (-140) or still short from 6th dec (+748) or used 6th dec post and the 16th december stop and are (+988) yeah right dream on..
Moving on
I thought i would do a post back on the 4th while still on holiday, but luckily the market decided to just drag on, so a week later i find my self looking at approximately the same targets and an extended chart pattern, and an upward move that seems to be very close to termination.
I will start the year with a 30 minute chart just to be safe, and follow it up later with something longer term when the short term resolves.
The chart is an (X)-a-b-c of a C retracement wave of larger degree. My target is 16311.58. This whole area between 16200 and 16311 looks like a shorting area. So short at will, the higher the price the better..
Posted on 11th Jan, @ 3:20pm IST with senxex at 16173
A quick review.
1. The december 6th post posted with the sensex at 16988 caught another head and shoulders pattern. The post pointed to a toping range of 17000-17200. The next day the market topped at exactly 17003.71.
2. On the 16th December in comments i posted the pattern was formed and was a 1200+ gain from the post. But i didnt instruct a close of the position, to give leeway to further downside and resolution of the pattern.
3. On 4th December i advised a top with a new short at 15863 with a stop at 16000.
So I assume as of today you are either stopped out from 4th december (-140) or still short from 6th dec (+748) or used 6th dec post and the 16th december stop and are (+988) yeah right dream on..
Moving on
I thought i would do a post back on the 4th while still on holiday, but luckily the market decided to just drag on, so a week later i find my self looking at approximately the same targets and an extended chart pattern, and an upward move that seems to be very close to termination.
I will start the year with a 30 minute chart just to be safe, and follow it up later with something longer term when the short term resolves.
Posted on 11th Jan, @ 3:20pm IST with senxex at 16173
No need to wait any longer to short the market high at 16257 was made at in the last half hour. This might be as far as we get to the upside.
ReplyDeleteposted on Jan 13th at 2:03pm IST with sensex at 16190
As you can see from the post this trade has been badly beaten up. However correlation to the EURUSD is still considerable and the Sensex continues to be a derivative. Although the EURUSD was expected to have a oversold bounce, i didnt see it stretching out this long. Direction should be resolved within this week. What triggers it is unknown. If i had to guess maybe "State of the Union" address this evening at 9PM EST.
ReplyDeletePosted on Jan 24th at 12:15 IST with Sensex at 17000
Dear Jason,
ReplyDeleteWhat is the count now? Considering so many overlaps should we see the decline as corrective? Or can it still be considered an impulse? Would greatly appreciate if you can post a chart with counts. Regarding the trigger - it will be Portugal - the CDS on portugal have gone over the cliff - wait for it to become headlines.
Best Brad
Brad,
ReplyDeleteI have 1 bullish count and 2 bearish counts. Will share in a week or two when this is resolved. As you noticed, the overlaps are a problem (hint)but if you combine the Sensex with INRUSD, the moves become much more distinct and slightly easier to count.
The bullish count you can extrapolate from EWI's free post that can be found here.
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2012/01/18/What-is-the-probability-for-an-upside-move-in-SP-Nifty-Index.aspx
Sensex needs to watch out for a EURUSD trend reversal.
ReplyDeleteIf Eurusd breaks down Sensex breaks down.
Feb 6th 12:10pm IST
Sell this move up in #BSE #NSE #Sensex #India and watch the $EURUSD. Exuberance in the equity markets is met by lethargy in the fx markets.
ReplyDeleteFeb 15th 2:30pm IST