Sunday, September 8, 2013

Indian Rupee Forecast Elliott Wave

I have expected a bearish rupee since the days the rupee was at 45. At that point i was expecting to see the rupee at 63, but thought that would be driven by a crashing stock market. A few months ago with the rupee at 60,  65 seemed like an easy target, but the stock market has barely cracked while bond outflows from the reversal of the hunt for yield, have forced a currency decline all the way to approximately 69. 


The longer term chart shows that we are in a III wave up, while the shorter term chart shows that we are in the process of completing a red iv wave down, possibly already ended or will end somewhere near 63. Wherever that red iv wave ends expect consolidation similar to what we saw in 2009-2011 (1st Half), between that and 69 for the next year, but probably more volatility.. The last decline in the Indian Rupee will be accompanied by a decline in the stock market. 

2 comments:

  1. Got the 63 today. We need to start creeping up tomorrow for my devious plan to work!

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