Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) update

This is an update to the previous post on April 21st, 2015.
The Index so far is displaying a perfect count. As from the chart you can see that the Green A and B are complete and the C down has started. This has taken a lot more time than i had envisioned but the target for the C remains the same as the original post ie. 5500-5700

A Fibonacci observation on $EURUSD

(Wave Red A) The May high 1.1612 to the June low 1.0913 = .0699

(Wave Red B) June Low 1.0913 to End of B wave triangle 1.1164 

(Wave Red C expected) End Wave B June high 1.1164 - .0699 = 1.0465 2015 March Low 

1:1 Price Symmetry

Apple: More downside coming

Since the $AAPL top-call back in February 2015, Apple has tanked 22%.
The market traced the 4,5,4,5 patter that i indicated, to finally top on July 20 from a count perspective. April 28th marked the all time high but as per the count i will use the July 20th for the start of the bearish count.

Since the top, it seems like we could be unfolding either of 2 patterns both bearish.
1. A and B is complete with a 1-2 of C complete and 3-4-5 pending.
2. ABC X AB complete with a C pending.(not shown on the chart)




Either way prices should fall below the $80 level or maybe even to the $68 level.

Google through the Elliott Wave filter

A sizable pullback in google is due. The stock seems to have topped at 762.50 on 23rd November. There is still a chance of a minor move higher  773 maybe to complete smaller level counts but the bigger picture is firmly in place and calls for a significant decline below 560 within the next few months.
From the daily chart below wave red V that started in Jan 2015 is complete with a 3-3-3-3-3, 5 wave ending diagonal.  

The Monthly chart below paints the larger 5 red waves and might be open to a later reinterpretation, but the short term view is still points to a significant decline.

Alternate Elliott Wave Counts on the EURUSD

The most popular count on the EURUSD also subscribed to by major EW services is as below.

The Problem here is the red C wave that begun in May 2014 should have been 5 waves. This was all in order till the move from March 15, 2015 (1.04584) to March 27, 2015 (1.10558) which was supposed to be a 4th wave landed up extending its self into October 2015 and now is not symmetrically relevant to the whole pattern as a 4th wave. Breaking of the 1.04584 will anyway invalidate that count.
I therefore present an alternate count. An ABC with C as an ending diagonal of which 3 waves are definitely complete.

 The 4th wave is most likely complete. The 5th wave A seems complete with a B and C pending and targets somewhere between. 1.04 and .9800.

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Short Term Count

My last post on Feb 3rd pointed to the Jan 28th Top at 29786. The Market in its infinite wisdom finally topped within the same expanding triangle on March 4th at 30,024.
This has now been followed by an ABC down and an abc up.

The abc has met with resistance from a midway channel line as you can see from the daily above and the weekly below.

What is not known is if the correction up (abc) is complete. Either way a pull back is due.
1. If the abc is part of a bigger A up we first get a pullback to form B and then another C up.
2. If abc is complete and the market breaks below 24500 the abc can be labeled X of a WXY with Y in progress and a target of approx 22,000.
  
I lean towards the second probability.

Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) Short Term Count

I play tennis 3-4 times a week, around the year and with the same group of guys (mostly Filipino) for the last 5-6 years now. Even though these guys love to gamble, never have i been asked about the stock market or other forms of investing. That was until the few weeks ago which took my attention to the PSEi Composite. I followed up on that conversation with the below messages..


The PSEi broke 7955 on April 2nd and topped on April 13th at 8130. It is now -3.5% from its peak.
The EW short term count is below, the long term count in the next post.