BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Short Term Count

My last post on Feb 3rd pointed to the Jan 28th Top at 29786. The Market in its infinite wisdom finally topped within the same expanding triangle on March 4th at 30,024.
This has now been followed by an ABC down and an abc up.

The abc has met with resistance from a midway channel line as you can see from the daily above and the weekly below.

What is not known is if the correction up (abc) is complete. Either way a pull back is due.
1. If the abc is part of a bigger A up we first get a pullback to form B and then another C up.
2. If abc is complete and the market breaks below 24500 the abc can be labeled X of a WXY with Y in progress and a target of approx 22,000.
  
I lean towards the second probability.

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Long Term Count Extension+ Extension

My earlier post edited for further extensions.

My last post, stated a condition "This count rests on the condition that the last high that we put in on Sept 22 at 27,254 stays intact, so this short term condition controls the longer term outlook." The market has spoken and we did break 27,254 with 5 small waves up and new high now at 28,822 on November 28th. We have again extended with another 5 waves up in an expanding triangle that ended on 29786 on Jan 28th. This now in hindsight can be counted as the final 5th wave of the impulse i thought had ended on September 22nd and again on November 28th. Any new 5 wave moves above the 28822 29786 high will invalidate the count. The new count is below.

The current juncture also coincides with the trend channel from the 2008 low.

A closer view of the final count is below.

  The outlook remains the same: an ABC down to the 21k-22k area.

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Long Term Count Extension

My last post, stated a condition "This count rests on the condition that the last high that we put in on Sept 22 at 27,254 stays intact, so this short term condition controls the longer term outlook." The market has spoken and we did break 27,254 with 5 small waves up and new high now at 28,822 on November 28th. This now in hindsight can be counted as the final 5th wave of the impulse i thought had ended on September 22nd. Any new 5 wave moves above the 28822 high will invalidate the count. The new count is below.



The outlook remains the same: an ABC down to the 21k-22k area and then a final up ABC move into the 30k-35k area to complete a wave V within a contracting triangle (which i shall display when the market is ripe for a major move down).

Side Note: While on holiday in India I stumbled on this FII Net Inflow Chart in one of the local Newspapers. What is interesting to note is that that last highest inflow was in 2010 and 2011 turned out to be an approximate -23% year. With record high Net FII Inflows will 2015 turn out to be another lousy year?? I think so!

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Long Term Count

I thought of posting my Long Term counts last week but EWI announced free week which started on Wednesday and then i thought it would just be redundant when the worlds favorite EW source releases the same information. So i finally got a chance to view their their Asian forecast charts and specifically that of the Sensex. How wrong i was......
The difference in the long term counts is significant. Their long term charts are very bullish while mine are very bearish. So while the mainstream presents a bullish chart i will give you the bearish alternate. This count rests on the condition that the last high that we put in on Sept 22 at 27,254 stays intact, so this short term condition controls the longer term outlook.

The market has just hit the long term trend channel, which makes me think there will be a pullback. The question is: Is it going to be significant?? All bullish counts have a 1st wave label for the November 2010 top and a 2nd wave ending at the December 2011 bottom. That makes the line in the sand the 21,079 level. I think this level will be broken within a year. If that is the case, then the count will revert to my bearish count presented above. Short term moves will clarify the current picture.

In summary i am looking for an ABC down to the 20k-21k area and then a final up ABC move into the 30k-35k area to complete a wave contracting triangle wave V.

BSE Sensex to Touch 17500 in 2 Weeks. Long Term Elliott Wave Count.

My last post on 16th July 2013, after weak upside of 500pts in a week was followed by a drop of 2750 pts. Although i thought that was the lower high (wave red 2) in the Sensex, i found my self squinting while trying to count a one wave down  from May 20th Peak. Although the 2750 points drop justified something major it was followed by a 5 wave spike to 20677. As per the previous post a move above 20,062 invalidated the short term count, but extends the longer term count and it falls so well into place that i dont have to squint anymore. The previous A-B-C is now followed by an X-A-B-C which is a 3-3-3-5.

The call for a touch of 17500 in 2 weeks comes from the fact that if the up move is really over. Then the following down move should take out the previous upmove that started at 17448 completely. The reversal that was created by the FOMC meeting followed by the RBI Repo Rate Rise will be blamed on the new scapegoat Raghuram, however if you look at all markets, outside India, there were reversals on a lot of charts.

The options remain the same as before:

i) Big downside: Green I & II are complete and III, IV, V are pending with downside targets close to 11,000 or below.

ii) Lesser downside: A 5-3-5 correction of the 2009-2010 rally is still in progress which probably will take us down to 14,000

Any move above the 20,457 will make this count unlikely, and break of 21,079 high in November 2010, will invalidate the current long term count.

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Count Long Term

“Everyone kept saying ‘a top is not in place yet.’ They persistently pointed to the ‘normally reached’ levels of this or that statistic that were not yet there to reinforce their desire to remain bullish. . . . Apart from statistical measures of increasing blindness, this unwillingness to acknowledge what they themselves were already feeling revealed a comfortableness, a confidence, a conviction that whatever was happening – short-term survivable dips – would continue . . . until ‘the top,’ like a strip tease artiste of our youth would with decorum appear on stage, bow, and then, accompanied by applause from all the bulls eager to cash in on their excitement, would begin to twirl its statistical tassels in front of everyone.
“I’ve gotten so old I can’t remember the names of those ladies at the Old Howard, but I can remember that all you got was a flash of this or that, before they waltzed off. Stock market tops are like that. You know it’s there somewhere if you squint hard enough, but you never quite see it, so you keep waiting for more. And then, in the end, as the curtain comes down on the bull market you realize that the one rule about tops is not that they provide this or that signal, but that they come before anyone is ready.”
. . . Justin Mamis (re-quoted by Jeff Saut of Raymond James)

 
This is a follow up to the post on January 22nd, where i concluded that the top was in and any movement specifically over the November 2010 highs (21079), would invalidate the count. What followed was a 2000pt decline approx. This however turned out to be a 3 wave move (now counted as a 4th wave), followed by an up move (now a 5th wave) which basically recounted the Red C wave.
Green Wave II was therefore completed on May 20th (20,443). This Larger count will still be invalidated if the Sensex gets over the November 2010 highs (21,079).




Confidence in the Long term count comes from the short term action where a clear 5 wave decline from May 20th - June 24th is followed by a 3 wave corrective move which ended July 15th. Todays 250 pt gap down does well to push the market along the path of least resistance..
 

Both counts are likely to be invalidated if we make new highs above 20,062.83 (July 15th highs.)
The conclusions remain the same from the last post as long as the market does not invalidate the count.
i) Big downside: Green I & II are complete and  III, IV, V are pending with downside targets close to 11,000 or below.
ii) Lesser downside: A 5-3-5 correction of the 2009-2010 rally is still in progress which probably will take us down to 14,000   

 Posted on July 16th, @ 2:10 IST with the Sensex @ 19820-30