SPY two Paths?

Will it be the green or the red path? 

My first choice is the red considering that the emerging markets also look like they want to turn over.

So you think your portfolio is diversified?

If you invested money in the last 4 years, you are probably feeling like a Genius. Since the 2009 lows you made plenty of money, except for those few summer months, your strategy has been great, you bought those SIP's, you diversified your portfolio. Well, you barely had to look at your portfolio. 

The reason your in such is a good mood is that all all asset classes have moved together directionally albeit with different intensity.
Below is a comparison of:
Templeton Global Bond Fund/ SPY (for a clear picture)



Templeton Global Bond Fund/ SPY/ Sensex (with the chop)












Now you see what i mean: Portfolio diversification is your advisers favorite smoke and relative returns his wand and as soon as this market turns your absolute returns will do the disappearing act.

S&P500 Top Top Top?

Pink lines... shows up at approx 1448-50. Top Top Top?
Do we pop it or do we touch it and drop. I am inclined to short it initially and then see how it goes from there.

SPY

Maybe time for a "Bull Steak"

S&P 500 Daily

This is a follow up to the previous post  S&P 500 Weekly, that i posted two weeks ago.
From the action in the last two weeks i think a clearer line in the sand can now be defined. A BLUE line that was part of the original post on the weekly chart has been changed to GREEN just for emphasis. It goes through the lows on 3/16, 6/16, the breakdown and retest 8/3, 11/8 before the market collapsed and again in 2012 resistance and then support for the 1st two weeks of Jan after which the market launched higher.

I think if the S&P 500 breaks this line in the next few days, we get a waterfall event like that of August 2011.
For the Elliotticians out there, it looks like a 5th wave is due which will most likely have extensions.

S&P 500 Weekly

My last S&P 500 post on Feb 1st was blown out of the water by a 9pt overnight gap up in the futures and this post carries the same risk, if we make it above 1375 and hold.
On a side note the Emerging Markets and BRIC post that i posted on March 11th, have played along very well and are midway along an intermediate decline..

Onto the chart...
Since the 2009 bottom the S&P 500 has been in a huge blue channel after breaking down from an initial wedge, during the August 2011 bout of selling. Since the October bottom it has tested the underneath of the wedge and pulled back. I think the Bears are shy and now cautious from getting their asses handed to them every time they get their hopes up form the last few dips in November, December, March and April. The bulls on the other hand continue to BTFD as even the major declines of May 2010 and October 2011 have been recovered. From the date on the video it is apparent this has been a theme since November 2010, that has continued to work. The reason for the bull bear discussion is that IMHO nobody (from the twittersphere, except Faber, Prechter and the perma-bears, which are knackered and bloody) expect a 150 pt (Aug 2011 style) immediate drop in the S&P500 to approx 1200- 1125, which would just keep it within the larger blue trend.



In summary i am looking at the current bout of selling in the S&P 500 to intensify and continue to the 1200 ish levels while the emerging markets continue the decline.....