BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Count

My previous post evaluated 2 short term scenarios for the Sensex.

As of Friday the 1st scenario has played its self out without the major retracement. In the post i had suggested a final target between (19000-19200). The Market opened and reached an intraday high of 19131.70, which satisfies my target and also a 5 wave structure, which has been marked in the above 5 Day chart. 5 wave structures are predominant in both waves 3 and 5.

Now on to the longer term chart, which is the updated version of the chart initially posted on June 5th.

The short term 5 waves up in the short term chart, completes a (C) counter-trend wave, which is the final retracement wave of the down move that spans the 14th of April to 25th May. This means that a new move down has started since Friday mornings highs, and should initially take us straight down to 17500 or lower.

Summary.
1. Target 17500 or lower. (Blue Box)
2. If 19131.70 is broken to the upside the longer term count and all targets will have to be reevaluated.

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Count

Just a quick update on short term count of the Sensex.
The big question here is whether the top on July 1st the end of a 3rd wave or the end of a 5th wave.
1. If it was the end of the 3rd wave then the Sensex has a little higher to go probably (19,000-19,200) after a brief pullback probably to the overnight gap up from June 29th (18,506-18,598). And then finally all the way down through the Feb and June lows.
or
2. If it was the end of the 5th wave then the Sensex goes lower and breaks all the way through the Feb and June lows.

I give the first scenario an edge based on smaller counts which could be debated.

Summary
Short term traders could monitor the (19,000-19,200)levels to see if they hold.
Long term buy and hold can start selling immediately.

USDINR & BSE Sensex

This week i will be playing special attention to the USDINR which i think will give us clarity on the direction of the sensex. Once i have that I will post a separate BSE Sensex count.
The longer term version of the below chart that can be found here, demonstrates the importance of these levels.The old red trendline was already broken and now very soon the USDINR will launch an assault on the new black trendline. Closing above this trendline is going to be trouble for the Sensex. The USDINR intraday can can be found here.

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Count

This post could have been labeled the "2 Week Senseless Sensex Guide." Expect a lot of volatility and a post from me every week.

The chart below is an updated chart of the chart i first posted on April 17, 2011. We missed the 17750 target by only 36 points.


The market has completed 5 waves down from the 14th of April to the 25th of May and is currently retracing the down move. As part of that retracement, we already got one up move and I now expect a move down to 18072-17786 by possibly 7th June or 8th June and then finally an up move whose targets i shall determine once we complete that down move this week.

GLD Throwover??

Gold from a short perspective looks interesting both on a short and long term chart with similar patterns on the 30 minute and the weekly chart.

The 30 minute broke the rising wedge upper trendline and then crashed below it after retracing approximately 76.4% of the down move from 2nd of May to the 5th of May .

The weekly chart also has potential to look like a throw over if we have a couple of down weeks, that ultimately break the bottom trend line.
This might be the start of a major sell off in gold.
Intermediate Target on GLD 146.00

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Count

While the longer term takes some time to work its self out, i decided to post a 30 Minute and a 2 minute chart.
While the 2 minute chart already completed a five wave pattern down, this does not seem large enough in points or in time to be a wave V. Most probably this is the 1st wave of the larger wave V. As seen in the 2 minute chart this 1st wave might have already completed a retracement at 18547.01 or may have another small leg up tomorrow, followed up by an immediate failure to maintain any breakout.

Conclusion:
Within 2 days we should see lower prices, with a move down ending in the 17750 area

The Waves Take Hold of the S&P500 Part I

Finally i am smiling like an idiot. After almost a year of trying to count waves i believe i finally managed to pick a good entry for an S&P 500 short. The counts on a 5 minute time frame are followed by the counts on a one minute time frame.


S&P500 was shorted at 1347.50 with the use of SDS with a stop at 1351.00

The initial reaction was just as expected. If the count plays out we should soon fill the gap from 20th April (not seen on the charts) at 1312.70

Will update with new posts as this plays out...