Emerging Markets & BRIC: Make or break time ... yet again

Since my last post on the subject on April 21st, both emerging markets and BRIC have both gone up for half the month and then down for the rest of the month.
EEM: now has a smaller right shoulder formed yet again on the same trendline.


EEB: Back to the trendline, yet again to decide its fate.
 


The only word of caution is that it looks like the S&P 500 might gain some strength and if it makes new highs both the EEM and EEB will make final moves upward and possibly even new highs (EEM 45.39, EEB 37.14) before they collapse below these trend lines.

Emerging Markets & BRIC: Make or break time

The Emerging Market and BRIC ETF's are both at crucial junctures.
EEM: Resting on a trendline after having completed what seems like a Ist and IInd wave down. If the trendline breaks we get a fully formed head and shoulders. The breakdown in 2008 also came from a similar formation.

EEB: This poster boy of the last bull run is sitting at the neckline of a head and shoulder pattern that has taken 4 years to form. In addition it looks like it is already forming a 3 of a larger IIIrd wave.

Considering the precarious position the S&P 500 is in, any sort of macro surprises would be capable of breaking down these markets in a big way!

BSE Sensex short term Elliott Wave

The last post on March 24th showed a head and shoulders pattern. The neckline was breached on 4th April and the test of the neckline seems complete as of today. This post will put that pattern into the context of a wave count. 

Although the market topped at 20203 on Jan 29th in terms of the wave count the market topped on March 11th. As from the chart the market has completed waves I & II and is in the process of forming a wave III down of which 1 & 2 of minor degree also seem complete. A breach of 18175 will confirm that a 3rd wave of III down has indeed started.
In conjunction with the head and shoulders post what we should see here is a move down to 17450-17000.
The count will be invalidated if another up move breaches the 19025 level.

Gold: Where do we go from here?

I put a title to this post and involuntarily just started singing this song from Evita. As i went over the words i figured that this was me back when the oil started cracking in 2008. I assume that gold bulls are feeling the same way today and will find something to take away from this.

Where do we go from here?
This isn't where we intended to be
We had it all, you believed in me
I believed in you

Certainties disappear
What do we do for our dream to survive?
How do we keep all our passions alive,
As we used to do?

Deep in my heart I'm concealing
Things that I'm longing to say
Scared to confess what I'm feeling
Frightened you'll slip away

Back to the TA.

Long term support comes in at 1100-1180 depending on how quickly we get there. 1180 also coincides with the point at which the current move =161.8x (move from September 2011). This is also an area of previous consolidation from the end of 2009- May 2010.
It goes without saying that a lot of chop is also expected at these levels.
Expect a follow up when we get there, if we do..

BSE Sensex Daily Head & Shoulders

While elliott wave counts are fuzzy and the market is up by 100+ pts today. I just thought i would mention something of interest on the daily chart, especially since i think that todays reactionary up move will quickly be met by selling.

Sometimes the simple text book patterns do work out. The RSI is highest at the left shoulder the head shows some divergence at the and finally further lows on the right shoulder forming. The neckline is very visible along with the green line that is the 200DMA, currently providing support. Should this break we will quickly be testing the 17400 levels. This week should provide answers for the next few months.

BSE Sensex Short Term Elliott Wave

I was a  bit early in calling a top at 20156 on the 21st of Jan. The top was actually put in on the 29th of Jan, at 20183. For reference to the Longer Term Elliott Count you can refer to my post dated Jan 22, 2013. The current drop starting on the 29th follows a picture perfect elliot wave pattern with each of the waves breaking down perfectly into smaller waves.

As per the count we have started a 3rd wave of which i &ii are complete. The wave (i) is also complete but completion of (ii) is debatable since we have a zig zag abc that might also form the "a" wave of a bigger flat which might finally conclude the (ii) at approx 19,000.
3 possibliities.
1. The whole count is wrong if we break 19200.
2. If 19,000 is breached, (iii) has yet to start.
3. If 18,760 is breached (iii) has started which should take us down to 18250 ish.

Updates to follow in the comments as moves are made.