Gold: Where do we go from here?

I put a title to this post and involuntarily just started singing this song from Evita. As i went over the words i figured that this was me back when the oil started cracking in 2008. I assume that gold bulls are feeling the same way today and will find something to take away from this.

Where do we go from here?
This isn't where we intended to be
We had it all, you believed in me
I believed in you

Certainties disappear
What do we do for our dream to survive?
How do we keep all our passions alive,
As we used to do?

Deep in my heart I'm concealing
Things that I'm longing to say
Scared to confess what I'm feeling
Frightened you'll slip away

Back to the TA.

Long term support comes in at 1100-1180 depending on how quickly we get there. 1180 also coincides with the point at which the current move =161.8x (move from September 2011). This is also an area of previous consolidation from the end of 2009- May 2010.
It goes without saying that a lot of chop is also expected at these levels.
Expect a follow up when we get there, if we do..

BSE Sensex Daily Head & Shoulders

While elliott wave counts are fuzzy and the market is up by 100+ pts today. I just thought i would mention something of interest on the daily chart, especially since i think that todays reactionary up move will quickly be met by selling.

Sometimes the simple text book patterns do work out. The RSI is highest at the left shoulder the head shows some divergence at the and finally further lows on the right shoulder forming. The neckline is very visible along with the green line that is the 200DMA, currently providing support. Should this break we will quickly be testing the 17400 levels. This week should provide answers for the next few months.

BSE Sensex Short Term Elliott Wave

I was a  bit early in calling a top at 20156 on the 21st of Jan. The top was actually put in on the 29th of Jan, at 20183. For reference to the Longer Term Elliott Count you can refer to my post dated Jan 22, 2013. The current drop starting on the 29th follows a picture perfect elliot wave pattern with each of the waves breaking down perfectly into smaller waves.

As per the count we have started a 3rd wave of which i &ii are complete. The wave (i) is also complete but completion of (ii) is debatable since we have a zig zag abc that might also form the "a" wave of a bigger flat which might finally conclude the (ii) at approx 19,000.
3 possibliities.
1. The whole count is wrong if we break 19200.
2. If 19,000 is breached, (iii) has yet to start.
3. If 18,760 is breached (iii) has started which should take us down to 18250 ish.

Updates to follow in the comments as moves are made.

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Count Long Term

On August 27th, i last posted a long term term chart based on a dollar adjusted proxy for the Sensex and although the count extended a bit it is still valid in addition to an (X) followed by an a-b-c. At that point the count on the BSE Sensex was still unclear. It seems like the Sensex has finally completed its move today topping at 20156.86, followed by 5 waves lower which should be the start of a major decline. This also supported by Bearish divergence in the RSI from Red A-C demonstrated with the red lines .
Any further upside movement specifically over the November 2010 highs (21079) will invalidate the count. So maintaining that the count stays valid we are presented with two possibilities.
i) Big downside: Green I & II are complete and  III, IV, V are pending with downside targets close to 11,000 or below.
ii) Lesser downside: A 5-3-5 correction of the 2009-2010 rally is still in progress which probably will take us down to 14,000   

 

Facebook: New Bull or Bear Market Rally?

I was just asked yesterday if Facebook was a buy.

Since the September 4th low 17.55 in Facebook, from the daily chart i have been on the watch out for a IV wave up.

From the hourly chart i thought the IV wave was complete on October 24th post the earnings result gap. What followed till the 12th November looked like a 1,2,3, wave. The formation of the 4th wave abruptly ended when it entered 1st wave territory on the 14th. The move hence looks like a abc wave corrective move X, or by an unnatural looking 5 count maybe a V.
Since November 14 what we have is either
i) Bearish: a completed ABC (5-2-5) which completes the ABCXABC which should be followed by some immediate downside, starting with a rapid break of 24 and 22.40
ii) Bullish: 123 of a Ist wave higher, with the 4th wave and 5th wave pending.

The doubt in the bear count stems from the fact that the IV wave as of the 26th November has cut into Ist Wave territory with a move above 25.52 which renders the current long term count on the daily invalid and concludes that a new bull market started on the 4th September and the current move is a 123 of a I of a much larger 3rd wave higher.

So all depends on if the current move morphs into 5 waves or starts reversing heavily after 3 waves.

Hope Bubble Bursting

Is the hope bubble busting??

S&P500 Top Top Top?

Pink lines... shows up at approx 1448-50. Top Top Top?
Do we pop it or do we touch it and drop. I am inclined to short it initially and then see how it goes from there.