Facebook: Another completed count

A picture this clear leaves nothing much to be said. A Red 5 up is complete, and so a significant pullback is due. What is not known is where in the larger picture these red 5 waves lie.
..... and so on the longer timeframes we have the below questions. Is this a 
1. Red 5 of I
2. Red 5 of III (will be eliminated if price crosses 44)
3. Red 5 of V

The outlook in the medium term however stays the same. The move from 17.55- 86.07 will be retraced and a pullback is due. My guess is that the pullback will take us to either 70 or 51.
Either way now seems like a good place to ditch the stock or short it.

The count will be invalidated if price breaks the highs at 86.07

Dax Update

This is a followup to my last post on the DAX, where i had posted 3 alternate counts. As from my post 2 counts have now been eliminated and the count below stands. The market is now at  12047 slightly above where the 3rd count (now eliminated) target was shown at 11900.
Old Count

New Count with extended 5th wave. Old 5th wave circled in red.

An internal count of the extended 5th wave is below.

A break of 11745 and 11598 should confirm a top in the DAX.

AAPL: To the sky or time to die!

On Jan 6th 2011, with price at $49 (price adjusted for splits) , i attempted to call the demise of $AAPL, by posting a monthly chart. Today with with price at $127 I attempt the same madness (calling tops without waiting for confirmation) as counts on multiple time frames all point to downside for the next few months. .
Monthly (just for comparison with the previous post)

Weekly (negative RSI divergence)

Daily (few questions remain unresolved)
1. Is the red 5 over yet or will it extend: Confirmation of a breakdown is if we break 105 in a hurry.
2. Is the red 1 actually a green/blue count (1,2,1,2,1) which will lead to a green/blue (4,5,4,5) to finish the pattern.

Targets will be posted in an update once we see an initial move down.

Three Ways of Counting the Move in the DAX

Yesterday at a ADS Seminar Mr. Nour Eldeen Al Hammoury asked the crowd if the dax made an ABC move in an Elliott Wave context. The move was symmetric and could be termed a 1:1 symmetric move, but in an Elliott Wave context the answer is a simple NO as ABC's do not make new highs unless the B is part of another B within an expanded flat. This count is highly unlikely since the B wave is 8%+ now over the A wave on the larger wave count as demonstrated below.

What is more likely is one of the below counts.
1. Final move has just ended.
Daily.

Weekly
Price has also hit the top of a trend channel so some sort of pullback would seem appropriate.

2. The ABC in question is actually a Wave 1 of an ending diagonal (wave 5) which consists of 5 overlapping ABC's shaped in a wedge,

This is the one i think is most likely.

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Long Term Count Extension+ Extension

My earlier post edited for further extensions.

My last post, stated a condition "This count rests on the condition that the last high that we put in on Sept 22 at 27,254 stays intact, so this short term condition controls the longer term outlook." The market has spoken and we did break 27,254 with 5 small waves up and new high now at 28,822 on November 28th. We have again extended with another 5 waves up in an expanding triangle that ended on 29786 on Jan 28th. This now in hindsight can be counted as the final 5th wave of the impulse i thought had ended on September 22nd and again on November 28th. Any new 5 wave moves above the 28822 29786 high will invalidate the count. The new count is below.

The current juncture also coincides with the trend channel from the 2008 low.

A closer view of the final count is below.

  The outlook remains the same: an ABC down to the 21k-22k area.

Dubai Financial Markets General Index Elliott Wave: What a Year!

A year ago i opined that the announcement of the Dubai Expo 2020 would produce peak euphoria for few months which once dissipated would have a negative effect on the DFMGI. The Index at that time was at approx 2900. The DFMGI 6 months later put in a top at 5400 on May 14th 2014. Since the top it has reversed almost all of 2014 gains with a drop back down to approx 3367 today.
As it stands the market is in no mans land, but there are 2 counts that could play out as seen on the monthly chart below.
In the festive spirit: Green is the bull count and Red is the bear count. The current move can either be a new bullish 1st wave followed by a 2 in progress or a bearish (X) wave with an ABC lower to follow.

Both counts of the current move in question are illustrated below on the weekly time frame.

My current preference is the bearish count because i initially thought that the 3635 level from 2007 and again in 2014 would provide support. That level was broken with ease, further todays close was below the Green ABC channel and marginally below the 50% retracement. If the DFMGI does not pop up hard within this week and maintain the channel and the 50% retrace, i will consider that proof that the downside is not yet done and will then look to see if the 61.8% at 2854 provides any support.
Also if the year end closes with prices right here. on a yearly chart we will be left with one big shooting star pattern, which is a sign of further nastiness to come.
 

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Long Term Count Extension

My last post, stated a condition "This count rests on the condition that the last high that we put in on Sept 22 at 27,254 stays intact, so this short term condition controls the longer term outlook." The market has spoken and we did break 27,254 with 5 small waves up and new high now at 28,822 on November 28th. This now in hindsight can be counted as the final 5th wave of the impulse i thought had ended on September 22nd. Any new 5 wave moves above the 28822 high will invalidate the count. The new count is below.



The outlook remains the same: an ABC down to the 21k-22k area and then a final up ABC move into the 30k-35k area to complete a wave V within a contracting triangle (which i shall display when the market is ripe for a major move down).

Side Note: While on holiday in India I stumbled on this FII Net Inflow Chart in one of the local Newspapers. What is interesting to note is that that last highest inflow was in 2010 and 2011 turned out to be an approximate -23% year. With record high Net FII Inflows will 2015 turn out to be another lousy year?? I think so!