Monday, October 31, 2011

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Count H&S

On August 5th i wrote about the head and shoulder pattern in the BSE Sensex. This pattern broke down soon after and a measured move from the breakdown would be 13000 ish . A natural progression of this pattern is also a test of the neckline after a breakdown from underneath. A textbook definition of this chart pattern can be found here. I waited for that test all of September but the closest it came was approx 17,250 on the 8th and 21st of September. The Friday close of 17,804 tested and closed perfectly on the neckline. In my post on October 9th the 2nd option which was short term bullish also talks about the head and shoulder neckline retest with a final target of 17800.
The chart below shows that this has been achieved.

Elliott Wave Count.
As per the 2nd option on the October 9th post, we revert to the September 11th Count. The move from the 15th of July to the 26th August is a red (1) and as expected the Red (2) has expanded and finally completed on the 28th October with the neckline retest discussed above. Red (1) and Red (2) currently seem like the first 2 waves of a 5 wave pattern, to the downside.  


This time i think there are no two options, just one.
DOWN
I think in the next 2-3 weeks we will be back at or below 15750.


5 comments:

  1. Jason,

    I like your confidence :) Hope this turns out true.

    Cheers,
    Brad

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  2. Brad,
    Its my Tony Montana moment.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Jason,

    Sensex has had a straight drop. Just like your count had projected! :) Awesome! Please keep them coming.
    Regards,
    Brad

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  4. Its 12:06pm India Time November 23rd Sensex @ 15692. Day traders or stingy buggers who dont want to give anything back can cover shorts. That was a 2000 pt move. Thank you!

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  5. 5th wave extension is almost over Its 12.37, November 23rd Sensex @ approx 15540. Small move down pending maybe but holding on to shorts here is being a pig!

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