Monday, October 10, 2011

S&P500, Emerging Markets and a Famous Global Bond Fund

I started writing this blog to keep track of my own opinions and look back later at the madness that was. This post may serve just that purpose, as i attempt to reconcile the Elliott Wave count on the S&P500 ($SPY, $SPX) with that of an Emerging Market ETF ($EEM) and a famous Global Bond Fund that take pride in their fundamental bond selection process, currency allocations and other hedging strategies.
$SPY VS $EEM
From the 1st of Sep to the 4th of Oct the $EEM seems to have completed 5 waves down with seemingly perfect form and the $SPY over the same period has completed 5 waves but with a ton of rule breaking overlaps or 2 great counts for the $SPY are provided by Joe the ElliottTrader on Youtube.
Now introduce the bond fund with a very mild marked 5th wave or alternate counts in brackets, that shows that there is a possibility of a 5th wave that is yet to come.The only way i see a reconciliation between the three charts is for
1. The Bond fund to have a 5th wave down, as determined by the alternate count.
2. $EEM to have an extended 5th wave of which we have completed a 1st wave down on the 4th and a 2nd wave up today or on friday.
3. $SPY chop counted with a FLAT-W-X-FLAT, followed by a 5th wave of which we have completed a 1st wave down on the 4th and a 2nd wave up today as shown in the chart below. In this count all a=c with the exception of the a-b-c in the X-Y where c= a*76.4%

This would all go well with Robert Prechters "All the same Market " thesis, for an actual 5th wave lower, which i think could start today.

Any one of the below would invalidate the count.
1. $EEM gets above 38.24
2. $SPY gets above 119.56

1 comment:

  1. Nice!! 119.56 busted one second before the close.
    38.12 on EEM too close to 38.24 for comfort.
    so thats how this worked out!

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