My last post on September had 2 Scenarios. The Market went with option 2 on the first move down to 16400 and managed to hold above 16200. My target for the A-B-C was 17600 which would have been a test of the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern. The market was was weaker than i had assumed. Since i had expected the A-B-C to break through the 11th Feb low, i had counted the low on the 26th of august as a sub-division Red(1). But since the ABC did not break the 11th Feb low (17295.62) i can now count the 26th Aug Low as a Green(3). This means the count changes and the september 21st high is a Green(4), instead of a Red(2).
The new count is below and the old count from the last post is here. I will not attempt to label the short term subdivision right now but will do that in later short term posts, as the market starts moving.
Starting with the higher probability of the 2 Scenarios:
1. We shall start a decline immediately.
My target for this decline is the a measured move from the mini head and shoulders pattern (white box, 11th Feb 2011 - 4th Aug 2011) is (14,450-14,750).
2. If we go over 16750, the Green(4) is most likely not complete and will extend further into the 11th Feb (17299.25 territory) and a final target of 17800 may be reached. In short we would revert to the 11th September count with a slightly raised target due to a slanting head and shoulder neckline.
Hi Jason,
ReplyDeleteThe green (2) high is actually a bad tick. The high in july is actually 19131 on 8th of July. The high for 15th of July is 18936. So the green (A) might actually be green (2)
Best,
BJ
hey!
ReplyDeletei thought i remember stocks traded on that day on weird quotes and there was to be an investigation, so price was valid. but all i can find is this (http://www.myfundson9.com/sensex-3/sensex-down-on-friday-market-review-15th-july-2011 )
if its a data error, yeah you may be right about (A) being a 2