Facebook: New Bull or Bear Market Rally?

I was just asked yesterday if Facebook was a buy.

Since the September 4th low 17.55 in Facebook, from the daily chart i have been on the watch out for a IV wave up.

From the hourly chart i thought the IV wave was complete on October 24th post the earnings result gap. What followed till the 12th November looked like a 1,2,3, wave. The formation of the 4th wave abruptly ended when it entered 1st wave territory on the 14th. The move hence looks like a abc wave corrective move X, or by an unnatural looking 5 count maybe a V.
Since November 14 what we have is either
i) Bearish: a completed ABC (5-2-5) which completes the ABCXABC which should be followed by some immediate downside, starting with a rapid break of 24 and 22.40
ii) Bullish: 123 of a Ist wave higher, with the 4th wave and 5th wave pending.

The doubt in the bear count stems from the fact that the IV wave as of the 26th November has cut into Ist Wave territory with a move above 25.52 which renders the current long term count on the daily invalid and concludes that a new bull market started on the 4th September and the current move is a 123 of a I of a much larger 3rd wave higher.

So all depends on if the current move morphs into 5 waves or starts reversing heavily after 3 waves.

Hope Bubble Bursting

Is the hope bubble busting??

S&P500 Top Top Top?

Pink lines... shows up at approx 1448-50. Top Top Top?
Do we pop it or do we touch it and drop. I am inclined to short it initially and then see how it goes from there.

BSE Sensex Elliott Wave Count Long Term

The last long term chart post was on October 9th 2011, with the Sensex @ 16232. Since then this level has been crossed approximately 7 times, and this summarizes the market movement for the last 12 months, with the Sensex now approx @ 17700.
The count on the Sensex is however fuzzy as then. In June I also posted "Looking at the Sensex as an FII would" explaining a dollar based proxy for the Sensex to substitute for the Dollex-30 whose data is sporadically quoted, and the count there may help us better determine the direction of the Sensex.

The count on the dollar based proxy based on the INR/USD and Sensex is very clear even down to the subdivided waves. The III wave divides perfectly into 5 waves within the green channel and the larger wave count fits perfectly into the yellow channel. This brings up 2 questions.
1. Is the III wave actually a 1st wave and the V wave a 1of 3 of a much bigger III. (Much bigger implications on the negative side)
2. If the shown count is accurate and the first question is not a viable question (i assume this), then is wave V complete (bullish) or have we just seen wave 1 and 2 of a much larger V(bearish)with 3,4,5 yet to play out. On investigating wave V, and the following move (May 23- Aug 21) i have the following observations.
i. In terms of time the up move following the wave 5 is 1:1 (3 months) +-2days.
ii. The move retraces approximately 50% of wave 5.
iii. The  move does not look impulsive and the waves overlap and very closely resemble a 3-3-5 retracement, with the a wave also breaking up into 3-3-5, which fooled me into thinking the b was a 1st wave and prompting the premature July 29th post.
iv. At a minute level one small upward move 5 of 5 may be pending. 
All observations conclude that this looks more like a 1 and 2 wave of a bigger wave V of which 3,4,5 are yet to come.

Forecast:
Barring a 2.2% move up to 53.90. (approx move to 18000 on the sensex) as per (iv) mentioned above, we should see a start to the downside of sizeable magnitude within the next 2 weeks which should finally take us down at least 25%, in the next few months, meaning that both the rupee will weaken and the Sensex will also fall significantly.

SPY

Maybe time for a "Bull Steak"

BSE Sensex Short Term

The last head and shoulders pattern that i posted approximately a month ago did not work out, it was pretty obvious after the right shoulder got taken out. Its been pretty crazy out there, but i think the market gods finally spoke to me over the weekend.

I have 2 scenarios here:A and B in order of preference.

Just a reminder that the FOMC meetings will run from Tuesday to Wednesday, till the announcement, additionally the Europeans may add some market moving yet insignificant chatter to the mix..

Maybe this time is Different

or maybe not!
Huge Head and shoulders on Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN)
The right time is here. Bigger decisions and larger chop will be prevail at the 84-88 level. If the H&S plays out. This stock could half.

A move back above 116 could be the all clear!